The hearings raised concerns about healthcare and the end of the Pnrr’s resources

The certainties are that the number of beneficiaries of the tax wedge cut will increase by 2.4 million, and that the merging of Irpef rates will also be felt, with disposable income for families which, on average, would rise by 1. 5% according to the Bank of Italy. But there are many doubts: starting from the growth estimates, which if too optimistic would threaten the recovery of the accounts. Up to healthcare where spending on doctors and hospitals returns to pre-pandemic levels so much so the parliamentary budget office evokes the risk of deficits for the regions. The x-raying of the budget law – with a hail of hearings in parliamentary commissions – is a real grill for the maneuver that balances the promises made with the stringent constraints of the new EU pact. And it reveals several potential critical issues linked to the choice to intervene almost everywhere.

At the base there is growth: from an initial estimate by the minister of the economy Giancarlo Giorgetti of around 1% we arrived – after the cold shower of zero growth in the third quarter – at a growth rate of 0.4% in 2024 by Istat, which will carry over to 2025. “Economic activity would struggle to regain momentum at the end of this year”, explains the deputy head of the economics and statistics department of the Bank of Italy Andrea Brandolini. “In the absence of a significant acceleration”, the growth envisaged in the structural budget plan for the two-year period 2024-25 “appears more difficult to achieve”. Words which, read together with the geopolitical and commercial risks, foreshadow a well-focused lens on the trajectory of the debt which, already in the objectives of the plan, would fall in relation to GDP only from 2027. There are also those, such as the president of the Cnel Renato Brunetta evokes a “ravine effect” as the effects of the Pnrr wear off – single pillar of public investments – after 2026.

The president of INPS Gabriele Fava gives an account of the “also favorable implications on the stability of the social security system” thanks to the intervention on pensions. It is Istat, however, that lifts the lid on healthcarein a country where in 2023 the Italians who had given up on treatment for economic reasons, inconvenience or too long waiting lists, were as many as 7.6% compared to 6.3% in 2019. If the count for families, in 2023 healthcare spending will drop by 0.4%, to 130.2 billion, to settle at pre-pandemic levels. Insufficient, according to the parliamentary budget office, to keep up with the needs of the regions. The numbers revealed by Istat on doctors and nurses trace a trend that is the opposite of what is needed: according to Bank of Italy, 30% more white coats will be needed in the next 10 years.

The list of doubts raised in the hearings also touches on birth rate measures, where Brandolini explains that more than transfers to families with childrenless effective, more nurseries and parental leave would be needed. And many of the items from which the government expects to make money: starting from the fairness of the intervention on deductions up to the linear cuts to the ministries, where Bankitalia instead calls for a selective anti-waste spending review. Coming up to the ‘contribution’ requested from the banks: the Court of Auditors expects collections in the next two years, perhaps even more substantial than expected. But being a ’round game’, there would be an “even more pronounced loss of revenue starting from 2027”.