It’s “virtually certain.” THEthe 2024 will be the hottest year in history – since global temperatures began to be measured – and the first full year that will exceed limit of +1.5 degrees temperature increase above pre-industrial levels: probably more than 1.55 degrees.
These are the data, truly worrying and not surprising, from the European Union’s climate monitoring service, the Copernicus program.
“The average global temperature anomaly for the first 10 months of 2024, from January to October – writes Copernicus – was 0.71 degrees higher than the 1991-2020 average: it is the highest ever recorded for this period, by 0.16 degrees higher than the same period in 2023”. According to the EU weather service, “it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The average temperature anomaly for the remainder of 2024 would have to fall to almost zero for 2024 not to be the warmest year “. Furthermore, Copernicus continues, “given that 2023 was 1.48 degrees above the pre-industrial level, it is virtually certain that the annual global temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level, and is likely to be higher by more than 1.55 degrees”.
The anomalous temperatures recorded in the world in 2023, Copernicus (Copernicus)
For the ordinary citizen, a global increase of 1.55 degrees may seem like a small thing. Scientists multiply this increase by the entire mass of lands and seas: a huge amount of energy. Which, in fact, not surprisingly causes an exponential increase in the frequency and intensity of destructive atmospheric phenomena, such as floods catastrophic that are felt even in our temperate latitudes.
Just days ahead of climate talks at the United Nations, Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess says this “marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should act as a catalyst to raise ambition for the next Climate Change Conference, COP29“.
Giants in retreat: the effects of the climate crisis on glaciers (Getty)
All the data
Global temperature
• October 2024 was the second warmest October globally, after October 2023, with an ERA5 average surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80°C higher than the October 1991-2020 average.
• October 2024 was 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels and was the 15th month in a 16-month period in which global average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above levels preindustrial****.
• The global average temperature for the last 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74°C higher than the 1991-2020 average and estimated to be 1.62°C higher than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
• The global average temperature anomaly for the first 10 months of 2024 (January to October) is 0.71°C higher than the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period, and 0.16 °C warmer than the same period in 2023. It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The average temperature anomaly for the remainder of 2024 would need to drop to near zero for 2024 not to be the warmest year.
• Given that 2023 was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial level according to ERA5, it is similarly virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 from ERA5 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level and will probably be more than 1.55 °C higher.
Europe and other regions
• The average temperature over the European mainland for October 2024 was 10.83°C, 1.23°C higher than the October 1991-2020 average, making the month the 5th warmest October on record for Europe . October 2022 is the warmest October on record, at 1.92°C above average.
• European temperatures were above average across almost the entire continent.
• Outside Europe, temperatures were higher than average over northern Canada and well above average over the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan and Australia.
• Temperatures were most noticeably below average over central Greenland and Iceland.
Sea surface temperature
• The mean sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 20.68°C, the second highest value on record for the month, and only 0.10°C per month. below October 2023.
• The eastern and central equatorial Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a shift to La Niña conditions, but SSTs across the ocean remained unusually high in many regions.
October 2024 – Sea Ice Highlights
• Arctic sea ice reached its fourth-lowest monthly extent for October, 19% below average.
• Sea ice concentration anomalies were well below average in all peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the Barents Sea, the Canadian Archipelago and north of Svalbard.
• Antarctic sea ice extent was the second lowest for October, at 8% below average, after October 2023 (-11%), continuing a series of large negative anomalies observed throughout 2023 and of 2024.
• Sea ice concentration anomalies in the Southern Ocean continued to be dominated by much below average concentrations in the Indian Ocean sector, as they have been since July.
October 2024 – Highlights of hydrological variables
• October 2024 saw above-average rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula, France, northern Italy, Norway, northern Sweden and east of the Black Sea. Heavy rainfall caused severe flash flooding in the Valencia region of Spain, with over 200 victims.
• Precipitation and soil moisture were below average in most of eastern Europe, particularly western Russia, Greece and western Turkey.
• Wetter-than-average conditions were observed in southern and eastern China, Taiwan, Florida (United States), parts of Western Australia and southernmost Brazil. Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene.
• Drier-than-average conditions were observed across most of the United States, the central plains of Australia, much of southern Africa and Madagascar, and parts of Argentina and Chile. The ongoing drought in the United States United is affecting a record number of people.
